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AI · Forecasting

The forecast number that's actually right.

Committed, Best Case, and AI Forecast side-by-side. Our model hits ±3.2% quarter-end accuracy across 2,400+ tracked forecasts — with variance explained in plain English, per rep, per region, per product.

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Q2 Forecast · 38 days left
Three views · one source of truth
Committed (rep-submitted)
$3.2M
Best Case (rep-submitted)
$5.1M
AI Forecast
$4.4M
Quota
$4.2M
Historical AI accuracy
±3.2%

Everything you need, built in.

The essentials for teams that want to move fast without giving up control.

±3.2% MAE at quarter-end
Measured across 2,400+ tracked forecasts from 180+ customer teams. Outperforms rep commit by 6×.
Per-rep, per-region, per-product
Roll-ups at any level with variance explanations for each slice.
Variance in plain English
'Down $120K this week: Stripe slipped to Q3, Figma closed early, 2 new opps created.'
Updated every 15 minutes
Not a Monday-morning snapshot. Real-time as deals move, emails reply, and meetings happen.
Three-column submission

Commit. Best case. And the third number that's actually right.

Reps still submit commit and best-case — accountability matters. But alongside those, Atlas shows the AI Forecast: a probability-weighted roll-up of every deal-level prediction, refined every 15 minutes.

  • Rep-submitted commit and best-case tracked as first-class
  • AI Forecast as a parallel column, not a replacement
  • Accuracy scorecards per rep · coaching insight for managers
  • Historical trend: how did your commit vs. AI compare last 4 quarters?
Forecast panel · Alex M.
Three views per rep
Commit
$412K
Best Case
$638K
AI Forecast
$524K
Last quarter accuracy · commit vs. actual
+18% miss
Variance explanations

Know why the number moved. Every week.

When the forecast shifts $280K week-over-week, the CRO wants to know why. Atlas tells them — in one sentence: 'Down $280K: 2 deals slipped to Q3 (Stripe, Figma); 1 new deal created (Vercel); 4 deals probability dropped after champion silence.'

  • Weekly and daily variance explanations
  • Grouped by cause (slips, adds, probability changes)
  • Click through to individual deals from any explanation
  • Executive briefing format: CRO-ready in 30 seconds
Week-over-week · Q2
AI Forecast: $4.4M → $4.1M (-$280K)
-$180K · Stripe slipped to Q3
Slip
-$120K · Figma closed Q1 early (won)
Early
+$60K · Vercel new opp created
Add
-$40K · 3 deal probabilities down
Drift
Accuracy tracking

Forecasts you can hold people to.

Per-rep, per-team, per-quarter accuracy tracked as a first-class metric. Reps who commit $500K and close $340K see their 'commit accuracy' score tank. Over 90 days, teams self-correct.

  • Per-rep forecast accuracy score (rolling 4 quarters)
  • Team leaderboard for forecast precision
  • Callouts when AI and commit disagree by > 20%
  • Exec dashboard: who forecasts tight, who doesn't
Forecast accuracy · team
Rolling 4 quarters
Alex M. · ±4.8% avg miss
Tight
Jordan L. · ±9.2% avg miss
Fair
Sam R. · ±28% avg miss
Loose
Team avg · ±11.4%
Avg

Teams ship revenue with this.

Real-world use cases across every revenue function.

CFOs doing quarter-end planning
AI forecast drops into the planning model directly. No more rep-inflation, no more sandbagging penalty.
CROs running Monday forecast calls
Open dashboard. Read variance explanation aloud. 7-minute forecast review instead of 45.
RevOps tracking accuracy
Forecast accuracy tracked per rep. Coaching conversations grounded in data, not vibes.
Board prep
Export AI Forecast with confidence intervals for every board deck. No more 'our rep thinks we'll close $5M.'

Frequently asked questions

What's the model architecture?

Two-stage: per-deal probability (gradient-boosted) × per-deal expected close-date prediction. Company-level roll-ups use Monte Carlo to produce confidence intervals.

Does it work for non-standard sales cycles?

Yes — the model learns your cycle. For verticals with 6-12 month cycles, we use 2-year training window. Transactional teams (7-30 day cycles) use a 90-day window.

How does it handle multi-year deals?

ACV, TCV, and ARR forecasts all produced separately. Pick which number drives your forecast in settings.

Can I override the AI number?

You can't override AI — that's the point of it being a parallel view. But you can annotate the AI forecast with context ('big expansion deal not in pipeline yet'). Annotations are tracked for post-quarter retrospective.

Keep exploring
Deal prediction →Analytics →Anomaly detection →For finance leaders →

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